Macro Shakes, But Structures Strengthen

Bitcoin Lives by Macro Sentiment

Bitcoin moved modestly upward during the week while U.S. equity futures and the dollar weakened. Behind the scenes, tensions between Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell played a role.

This was yet another reminder that despite the digital gold narrative, Bitcoin still reacts strongly to interest rates, liquidity, and political uncertainty. For the long-term investor, this isn't so much a signal about short-term price but rather a demonstration of how tightly the crypto market is connected to the global financial system.

Bitcoin as Part of National Reserve?

Meanwhile, the discussion about Bitcoin's place as part of mainstream finance advanced to a new level. Cathie Wood put forward the idea that the United States could in the future consider Bitcoin as part of its national reserve alongside gold.

While this is still purely a thought experiment, it speaks to an essential change. Bitcoin is no longer a marginal experiment but is being discussed in the context of sovereign balance sheets. The mere openness of the discussion speaks to the mainstreaming of the narrative.

Altcoins Charted Their Own Path

As Bitcoin softened, altcoins didn't wait around. XRP and Solana rose double-digit percentages during the week and again sparked discussion about rotation and the return of risk appetite to the longer end of the market's risk curve.

This was a reminder that the crypto market rarely moves in a straight line. Often the most significant moves come precisely when attention is fixed on Bitcoin and consensus expects a clear direction from it.

Stablecoins Do Crypto's Most Important Work

Behind the altcoin moves, infrastructure strengthening is also visible. Stablecoins continue their quiet but crucial role in market functionality. In 2025, stablecoin transfers grew 72% and reached approximately $33 trillion in volume. Circle and USDC were at the forefront of development.

While memecoins and ETFs grab headlines, stablecoins do crypto's most important work by moving money globally fast and cheaply. This is probably crypto's strongest product-market fit to date and increasingly difficult to ignore for both banks and policymakers.

Macro Environment Supports Risk Assets

Stock markets started the year strongly and small caps led the rally. This points to looser financial conditions and strong U.S. economic growth. Economic data repeats a familiar pattern. Manufacturing is still in contraction but the service sector is growing for the tenth consecutive month and price pressures are easing somewhat.

At the same time, there's weakness in labor markets. Job growth fell short of expectations and previous figures were revised downward. The economy is clearly K-shaped. Assets and services are doing well but employment momentum is eroding beneath the surface. This creates pressure on the Fed to ease monetary policy more than markets are currently pricing.

Monetary Policy Continues to Ease

The overall monetary policy picture is increasingly stimulative. T-bill-weighted debt issuance, the Fed's monthly purchases, regulatory easing for banks, and now also plans for large MBS purchases are moving the system toward an increasingly loose liquidity environment. In practice, we're moving toward full-scale stimulus even if it's not called that.

Bitcoin Supply Pressure Eases

On-chain data suggests that large holders' profit-taking has clearly slowed. Realized profit has dropped sharply from late last year's levels and selling pressure has lightened. In the short term, the market is still weighed down by ETF flows and buyers at previous peak levels, but the overall picture is improving.

When global liquidity is growing, monetary policy is easing, and the political climate favors economic overheating, the debasement trade strengthens. In this environment, Bitcoin still has the best conditions to emerge as the leading macro asset class in 2026.

Crypto Regulation Advances in the United States

In the United States, crypto regulation is now progressing concretely. Senate Republicans advanced a draft of a new crypto law, although Democratic support is still uncertain. The pace alone is a significant signal that crypto regulation is no longer a theoretical discussion but an active legislative process.

World Liberty Financial Applies for Trust Bank License

This is directly reflected in the crypto-native field as well. Trump family-linked World Liberty Financial applied for permission to establish a national trust bank for its USD1 stablecoin.

If the license is granted, the company would operate directly under federal supervision and be responsible for stablecoin issuance, redemption, custody, and reserve management. This would be an exceptional step for a crypto-native player and speaks to how quickly stablecoins are moving toward the core of the traditional financial system.

Stand With Crypto Grows Strongly

At the same time, political advocacy for crypto is growing. Stand With Crypto gained 675,000 new supporters last year and grew to about 2.6 million members. The group has been active in campaigns targeting legislators and several key industry players are behind it. Crypto policy has become a real election issue in the United States.

Morgan Stanley Brings Crypto to E Trade Platform

On the institutional side, the week brought several significant news items. Morgan Stanley filed for a Bitcoin ETF and announced it will bring Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana trading to its E Trade platform in the first half of this year. The bank is also planning its own digital wallet.

This clearly reflects that the discussion has shifted from whether traditional finance will get involved to who will capture flows and control the infrastructure.

UK FCA Opens Crypto Licenses in 2026

In the UK, regulator FCA announced it will open the crypto license application process in September 2026 before the new regulatory framework takes effect in 2027. Current registrations won't automatically transfer and late movers will end up in a restricted transition state.

This underscores that in Europe too, institutions are preparing for serious and long-term crypto presence.

BNY Mellon Launched Tokenized Deposits

Traditional banks aren't staying on the sidelines. Bank of New York Mellon launched a tokenized deposit solution where bank deposits can be transferred via blockchain rails without leaving the banking system.

JPMorgan Expands JPM Coin

JPMorgan connected its blockchain network to the Canton Network, enabling real-time settlement for tokenized assets. The move connects the world's largest bank to a broader blockchain ecosystem and speaks to how tokenization is becoming part of mainstream financial infrastructure.