Quiet November as a Stormy Year Winds Down
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Macroeconomics
Fed's Measured Stance Brought Relief – Temporarily
Reassuring comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and expectations of a December rate cut brought relief to markets. Slowing retail sales and low producer price inflation reinforced market confidence that monetary policy will ease soon. S&P 500 rose led by technology, and Bitcoin climbed back above $90,000 as mechanical selling pressure eased. Coinbase spot premium turning positive again suggests U.S. demand is returning.
Macro Tailwinds – But Also Hidden Pressures
U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, the dollar weakened, oil stayed soft, and volatility indices (VIX and MOVE) declined. This creates a risk-favorable environment for early December. However, financial market liquidity remains tight, and the end of Quantitative Tightening brings only temporary relief. The Fed is expected to return to "unofficial stimulus" – easing monetary policy to maintain balance.
Yield Curve Control – Banks Buying Debt Without Capital Requirements?
In the U.S., new eSLR rules on bank capital requirements (effective January 1st) reduce required capital, and Trump adviser Stephen Miran proposed removing Treasury bonds entirely from capital calculations. This would free bank balance sheets for riskier investments. The proposal also signals a potential new type of yield curve control mechanism.
Bitcoin's Price Drop Doesn't End the Bull Run – Correction Over?
Bitcoin's recent drop appears more like a correction than the end of a bull market. The end of QT and rate cuts could further ease financial conditions, supporting price recovery. A true momentum reversal requires a return above $107,000, but current conditions suggest the bottom may be behind us.
Liquidity Is Ultimately Everything
U.S. Treasury liquidity (TGA) fell by about $100 billion in November, bringing temporary relief, but the massive national debt requires financing. The Fed is expected to restart asset purchases to ensure liquidity. This supports price development of risk assets like Bitcoin. From a crypto investor's perspective, this continues to support the long-term view – inflation pressure is addressed by weakening currency value.
Crypto News
Tether's Stability Raises Questions
S&P downgraded Tether's stability rating to "weak." The concern is that 24% of the $174 billion in reserves backing USDT is in high-risk investments like Bitcoin, gold, and corporate bonds. Bitcoin's share of USDT reserves has risen to 5.6%, exceeding the buffer considered safe.
Hyperliquid Released Developer Tokens – No Outside Sellers
The Hyperliquid team confirmed that 1.75 million HYPE tokens (worth over $60 million) were released to developers and core contributors. The project has no outside investors, so no selling pressure is expected. Hyperliquid continues its growth as a pioneer of decentralized exchanges.
Klarna Launches Stablecoin – Using Tempo Blockchain
Klarna announced it will launch its own KlarnaUSD stablecoin on the Tempo blockchain developed by Stripe and Paradigm in 2026. Klarna aims to use the stablecoin for faster and cheaper payment transactions. The company has also hinted at several upcoming crypto partnerships.
Institutions
Amundi Tokenizes Money Market Fund on Ethereum
Europe's largest asset manager Amundi tokenized a €5 billion fund on the Ethereum network. It's a conservative and liquid fund whose availability extends beyond traditional channels to blockchain. Technology is provided by CACEIS, which also offers stablecoin-based subscriptions and redemptions around the clock. Tokenization continues strong growth on the institutional side.
South Korea Tightens Anti-Money Laundering Rules
South Korea's financial regulator plans to extend the Travel Rule to crypto transfers under 1 million won (about $680). This closes a loophole users have exploited by splitting transfers to avoid regulation.
Market Sentiment Cautious – ETF Flows Still Negative
Crypto exchange revenues have declined and ETF flows continue outflows. November's macro shock still shows as market caution. Retail investors haven't returned, and institutional players await clearer signals.
Cathie Wood Shopping Again
ARK Invest increased its holdings in Google, Coinbase, Circle and Bitcoin ETF products. The strategy is familiar: when markets wobble, ARK adds weight to highest conviction positions.
Robinhood and the Rise of Prediction Markets
Robinhood's stock rose on speculation that prediction markets could be a significant new revenue source for the company. In the prediction markets space, Polymarket got the green light from regulators, while competitor Kalshi faced regulatory hurdles.
Summary
Early December looks positive, but underlying tensions remain, especially in liquidity. If the Fed begins new monetary policy stimulus sooner than expected, year-end sentiment could improve significantly. Crypto market pressure has eased, but sustained rally requires further confirmation. Meanwhile, stablecoins and tokenization continue rising – signs of long-term structural changes are visible everywhere.
Related Guides
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Complete guide to Hyperliquid, high-performance Layer 1 DEX.
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Complete guide to Ethereum, how it works, use cases and future prospects.
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