Crypto Markets Seek New Equilibrium

Government Shutdown Resolution Brought Relief Rally

Signs of the U.S. government shutdown ending emerged over the weekend, quickly bringing a relief rally to crypto markets. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP surged. Political uncertainty has long weighed on markets, so even a small ray of hope brought optimism back. Investor sentiment matters, and so do functioning authorities.

Polymarket Nailed It, Once Again

Polymarket users began anticipating the shutdown's end over the weekend, and market prices quickly followed this betting platform's predictions. Polymarket is becoming a real-time sentiment barometer for macro events.

ETF Flows Finally Turned Positive

After weeks of outflows, spot ETF products began seeing capital inflows again. While amounts were still modest, this signals returning investor confidence. If flows continue through mid-November, it could mark the end of post-October depression.

Robinhood's Crypto Market Review: Less Fireworks, More Foundation

Robinhood released its market review, highlighting crypto's persistent user engagement, expanding product selection, and clarifying regulatory profile. This is exactly the foundation needed to build the next bull run – channels in order before the boom begins.

Ledger Considering New York Stock Exchange Listing

Popular hardware wallet maker Ledger is exploring the possibility of listing on the New York Stock Exchange or raising a major funding round. Demand for security infrastructure grows whenever news highlights the need for self-custody. Additional funding could enable new products, services, and a massive marketing campaign. Learn more about Ledger wallet security and check out our crypto wallets comparison.

Strategy Raised More Capital in Europe for Bitcoin Purchases

Michael Saylor's Strategy raised $715 million through European players to buy more Bitcoin. The strategy is simple and repeatable: buy and hold. Institutional investors' Bitcoin theses didn't die in October's drop.

Macro Overview – Expectant Sentiment

Stock markets saw a three-week rally streak broken last week as tech stocks fell on AI bubble fears. Our view is that AI is not hype but an exponential, structural trend shifting significant value from traditional players to AI companies. Check out the best AI projects in crypto.

Bitcoin Technical Situation

Bitcoin dropped below $100,000, found support around $98,000, and looks technically weak – the next support zone could be $88,000-$92,000. This happened even as financial conditions somewhat eased last week. If you're a new investor, check out crypto investing basics.

Liquidity Pressures

Banking system liquidity is still pressured by the government shutdown and related TGA balance swelling. This money is out of markets as long as the government doesn't spend it back into the economy.

Liquidity Improvement

Fed's SRF facility usage dropped sharply and Reverse Repo funds declined, bringing cash back to markets. Bitcoin's large holders continue selling profitably, and the buy-side still shows weakness.

Labor Market Data Softening

U.S. labor market data has softened. The ADP report shows private sector employment rose modestly, but the overall picture is soft and layoffs are increasing. This supports the view that the Fed will continue cutting rates. Learn more about inflation and cryptocurrencies.

Sector Outlook

The service sector is growing, but manufacturing continues contracting. Overall, the U.S. macro environment remains in a "Goldilocks" balance: slowing but not collapsing growth, and persistent but not accelerating inflation.

Fed Starting "Not QE QE" Operation?

NY Fed's John Williams' speech hinted that the Fed may restart asset purchases when bank reserves shift from "abundant" to "ample."

This isn't officially QE, but has the same effect: money flows into markets, liquidity improves, and currency purchasing power weakens. Our view: the next bull market is just beginning.

News from the Crypto World

Coinbase submitted a statement to the U.S. Treasury on the GENIUS Act, urging authorities to limit regulatory obligations only to entities specified in the law.

Mastercard, Gemini, and Ripple Partnership

Mastercard is partnering with Gemini and Ripple to explore how RLUSD stablecoin could be used for fiat payment settlement on the XRPL blockchain.

Institutional Movements

Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said the UK is not falling behind on stablecoin regulation and that rules will take effect at the same time as in the U.S.

Canada's Stablecoin Regulation

Canada's budget announced that stablecoin regulation will launch soon with $10 million funding for 2026-2027.

Australia's ASIC on Tokenization Opportunities

Australia's ASIC Chairman Joe Longo urged the country to seize tokenization opportunities or risk falling behind. He referenced Switzerland's and J.P. Morgan's progress in the field and reminded that Australia was once a market innovator – now others are passing by.