October Closes Subdued, Relief on the Horizon

October Closes Subdued – Bitcoin Below $108,000

October ended on an unstable note for crypto markets as Bitcoin fell below $108,000. Crypto exchange stocks followed suit, and the month marked one of Bitcoin's weakest Octobers in years. Meanwhile, capital flowing into gold and a dip in tech stocks reflected a cooling macroeconomic sentiment.

Many see this as a necessary "cleanup" after an overheated third quarter. Frustrating, but not fatal. Crypto markets have seen similar corrections before, and historically, they've offered good opportunities for long-term investors.

US Government Shutdown Extends to Historic Length

The US federal government shutdown is stretching to historic lengths. This increases uncertainty in everything requiring functioning bureaucracy, including crypto regulation and ETF decisions.

Ironically, this legislative vacuum may only strengthen crypto's "be your own bank" narrative. When the traditional financial system and government services stall, the value of decentralized systems becomes even more apparent.

Stablecoins Dominating Remittance Markets

New data shows stablecoins are gaining market share in international remittances. Traditional players are already experimenting with blockchains as transfer platforms. Lower costs and instant settlement are achieving what fintech companies couldn't in ten years – making remittances truly modern.

Traditional services like Western Union and Zelle must respond to stablecoin competition or lose market share.

Mastercard Considering Stablecoin Infrastructure Acquisition

Mastercard is in negotiations to acquire ZeroHash for up to $2 billion. The goal is to control stablecoin backend technology: custody, issuance, and settlement.

Card companies have moved to a phase where they no longer question the significance of stablecoins, but rather decide which technology they'll control. This is a significant shift in traditional finance's approach to cryptocurrencies.

Truth Social Launches Prediction Market

Trump's Truth Social is launching Truth Predict, enabling bets on real-world events in politics, sports, and culture. Prediction markets are thus moving from a crypto specialty to a mainstream content strategy tool.

Regulatory attention is expected from the start. Platforms like Polymarket have already faced regulatory scrutiny, and Truth Social's move into this space will certainly bring more attention.

Strategy Expands Digital Lending

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) plans to expand its digital lending business internationally while restructuring its debt. The company has evolved from a headline-grabbing Bitcoin buyer into a true crypto portfolio manager.

Polymarket's POLY Token Is Coming

Polymarket's marketing director confirmed that the company plans to release the POLY token and an associated airdrop. The next phase of prediction markets is beginning. How the token incentives work will determine its success.

Tokenized Deposits: Custodia Vantage Pilot

Custodia Bank has launched the Vantage pilot, enabling bank-internal asset movement on blockchains. This happens quietly but is a highly significant development in tokenization. Traditional banking infrastructure is taking its first concrete steps toward blockchain-based settlement.

US Stocks Hit New Highs, Bitcoin Recovers

The week started strong with positive news from China-US trade negotiations, but the Fed's hawkish stance dampened sentiment. The expected 25 basis point cut materialized, but December additional cuts were put into question.

Bitcoin experienced its first red October since 2018. Meanwhile, inflation figures came in softer than expected: 3.0% headline inflation and 3.0% core inflation. This "Goldilocks" economic situation – not too hot, not too cold – is typically favorable for risk assets.

Quantitative Tightening Ends Next Week

The good news was the Fed's announcement that the QT program will end in December. The Fed's balance sheet will no longer shrink, but will start growing again. This should ease market pressures and improve liquidity in the long term.

Bank reserves have dropped below $3 trillion, a critical level. This forced the Fed to stop balance sheet shrinking. Short-term liquidity pressures have been noticeable, but QT's end and the shutdown ending mean liquidity returning to markets.

The growth of the US Treasury General Account (TGA) and banks' quarter-end "window dressing" have pulled cash out of markets. When the government shutdown ends, money will be released back to markets through TGA accounts.

US-China Trade Negotiations Progress Positively

Trade negotiations between the US and China have progressed positively. The parties have reached a preliminary agreement, and negotiations continue. This reduces geopolitical uncertainty and supports global markets.

Summary: Uptober Has Truly Returned

While central bank rate cut timing has short-term impact, more important is the direction – and it remains toward lower rates and looser liquidity. Growing liquidity and QT's end are positive signals.

We continue to believe that the fiat system survives only by adding liquidity. Every time the Fed acts as a liquidity guarantor, it leads to greater debt burden, a larger balance sheet, and faster currency depreciation. This in turn feeds the rise of Bitcoin and other hard assets.

We may have seen a local bottom: month-end is over, and when the government shutdown ends, money will be released back to markets. Long-term outlook remains strong.

Coinbase Beat Q3 Expectations

Coinbase reported $1.5 EPS for Q3, which was 45% above analyst expectations. Revenue grew 25% from the previous quarter to $1.86 billion.

Spot trading volumes rose globally by 38% and in the US by 29%. The company increased its Bitcoin holdings by $299 million. This demonstrates Coinbase's strong position in crypto markets and growing institutional investor interest.

Tether's Profit Exceeded $10 Billion in 2025

Tether released its Q3 report and announced making over $10 billion in profit in the first three quarters. The company's US Treasury holdings are $135 billion and gold reserves nearly $13 billion.

Additionally, it owns $10 billion worth of Bitcoin. Tether is one of the world's largest holders of US Treasury securities, demonstrating stablecoins' significant role in the global financial system.

Australia's ASIC Updated Guidance

Australia's financial regulator ASIC updated its guidance: stablecoins, wrapped tokens, tokenized securities, and digital wallets are now classified as financial products. Service providers are required to obtain a local license.

This is a significant step in clarifying regulation and shows that authorities are taking cryptocurrencies seriously as part of the financial system.

Western Union Launches USDPT Stablecoin on Solana

Western Union plans to launch its own stablecoin, USDPT, on the Solana blockchain in partnership with Anchorage Digital Bank. Launch is expected in the first half of 2026.

This is yet another example of how traditional remittance companies are adopting blockchain technology to improve their services and remain competitive.

IBM Releases Digital Asset Haven Platform

IBM released the Digital Asset Haven platform, enabling development of blockchain-based services for financial institutions, governments, and enterprises. The platform's technology is provided by Dfns.

IBM's move to become a blockchain infrastructure provider for institutional clients is a significant development. It shows that major tech companies see blockchain technology as part of future enterprise solutions.

Indonesian Central Bank Plans Digital Rupiah

Bank Indonesia is planning a digital rupiah and a supporting stablecoin system based on tokenized government bonds. The goal is to launch the country's own stablecoin ecosystem supported by a state digital currency.

This is part of a broader development where central banks around the world are researching and developing their own digital currencies and related ecosystems.